dimanche 7 janvier 2018

2017 review

Yes, I'm still alive.
The blog reflects my portfolio activity...I currently find few investment opportunities fitting my criteria (cheap valuations and reasonable quality companies), so I do nothing.
I've mainly trimmed down some positions, and I'm now around 17% cash.

My portfolio is up 20% in 2017 (incl dividends), carried by the rising tide of valuations.
(2016: 22% ; 2015: 15% ; 2014: 11%, 2013: 35%. I should maybe mention a whooping -40% in 2008)

- HMG Finances Découvertes ~17 %
- Independance et expansion ~27%
- sextant pea ~14%
- cac mid&small ~20%

Main holdings end 2017 are almost identical to end 2016

Precia (PREC)
Makes industrial scales and associated services (calibration...). The business is slowly expanding its operations and making small acquisitions. Still reasonably valued, should benefit from improving French economy.

Tessi (TES)
See original article here. Still reasonably valued.

Installux (STAL)
See value and opportunity article here. Still reasonably valued.

Gevelot (ALGEV)
See my original blog article here. Interestingly the auto parts manufacturing branch has been sold this year, at around 0.8 price to book value. What remains is the pump business, which historically has been more profitable, requiring lower maintenance CAPEX, and a large pile of cash. What  management (indifferent to minority shareholders) will do with this cash remains the central issue.

Gerard Perrier (PERR)
Industrial automation, nuclear sector.
See article here.
Still reasonably valued

See my blog article here. No longer cheap , I'm beginning to get nervous after the stock price increase, but good recent results and growth make me reluctant to sell. When should a stock like this should be sold ? When reaching unreasonable valuations ? When results start to degrade ? 

See article here. Some funds have stated that the price offered by Schneider is too low and are betting on an improved tender offer.

Constuction sector, in France and overseas territories. One of the 1st stocks I bought a decade ago. It was a net-net then, it is still very cheap now. All the markings of a value trap, 2017 results rather bad but does not burn cash. Large cash cushion. Value investing may involve patience but in this case it is rather extreme. Time will tell (maybe).

Malteries Franco-Belges (MALT)
Micro-cap, malt for beer brewing, French and East-european markets. Used to be extremely cheap (taking into account unconsolidated results from the east-european factories), still reasonnably valued now. It is likely that the main shareholder (Groupe Soufflet) will buy out minority investors at some time. Very illiquid stock.

Best wishes !

5 commentaires:

  1. " When should a stock like this should be sold ? When reaching unreasonable valuations ? When results start to degrade ? "

    no, simply put an automatic broker entry "trailing stop loss" of 15% (example given) under your share price, and let it all climb further. At the first bad news, even if you are not watching, you then are automatically out with your 15% trailing stop loss activation, which gets activated as soon as your share price is going under by e.g. 15%. If your share has in the meantime climbed another 30% you still have an extra 15% profit compared to selling now... Look at NN Group, P/B book value 50%, P/E reasonable, good dividend, monopoly with Aegon in Holland, euro share denomination.

    1. Thanks about NNgroup, I own a few shares.
      Regarding selling.
      When I buy it's because I assume that Mr Market (price) is wrong and my value estimate is right. For me it would be inconsistent to abandon this when selling. Why would the market be wrong in the 1st case, and right in the 2nd case ?

  2. Great stuff. Congrats on the terrific performance. Still in the CA banks?

    1. Thanks. I'm not sure the performance is terrific, let's say average. Yes still in the CA banks, let's say it's like investing in subordinated perpetual bonds....I've heard no fresh news on the ADAM lawsuit.

  3. Nice to read something new from you. And terrific portfolio activity. I'm too active and could learn from you.