jeudi 19 décembre 2013

2013 review

The year is nearing its end, so it's time to reflect on 2013.

My porfolio is up approx 35 % (defined in my case as the internal rate of return, XIRR function of excel), so I can't hardly complain.
However some of the Small caps value funds I follow are doing much better: see this link (video in French):
Independance et Expansion is up ~60 %, HMG Decouvertes up ~40 %, Sextant PEA ~37 %, Moneta Micro entreprises (closed to new subscriptions) ~ 36%.

As a consequence, I've had a hard time recently finding interesting stock picks (and the blog has remained quite silent). Same thing with convertible bonds, risk aversion is sharply down whereas it was possible to find a good yield on some thinly traded convertibles only 6 months ago.

This may be compounded (in France) by the creation of the PEA-PME, a tax shelter (a rarity these days) reserved for European small cap stocks.

It also seems to me (but I haven't bothered to quantify this) that IPO's are back in Euronext Paris, especially for med-techs. The small caps are also quick to react to news (publications,...) whereas a few months ago the market was quite inefficient and it was possible to buy a few shares before the news had spread.

My favorite gurus have issued what I consider to be warning signals (this applies to the US markets, more richly valuated than Europe, but still...)
Hussman funds
Howard Marks
Jeremy Grantham

In a next post, I'll review my tops and flops and try to draw some lessons for next year.
And Happy Christmas to everybody.