jeudi 26 mai 2011

Prudence / Caution

Je n'ai pas posté de nouveaux messages depuis longtemps.
2 raisons principales :
- j'ai du mal à trouver des valeurs intéressantes sur lesquelles investir. Les très bonnes affaires qu'on pouvait rencontrer il y a encore 1 an sont difficiles à trouver. On peut trouver des actions pas chères, mais souvent pour de bonnes raisons.
- je préfère rester très prudent dans le contexte actuel.
I haven't posted for a while.
2 reasons :
- bargains are harder to find. Cheap stocks can be found but more often than not they're cheap for a good reason
- I'd rather stay cautious given the current situation.

Ci-joint plusieurs liens vers des gestionnaires de fonds que je respecte beaucoup et qui ont eu notamment le mérite de prévenir avant le krach de 2008. Si j'avais à résumer leur message, ce serait : "Prudence".

Below are commentaries from fund managers I greatly respect and are among the few that foresaw and forewarned the 2008 collapse. If I had to sum-up their message, it would be "Caution".

Hussman funds : 10-year projected returns in the range of 3-4.5% annually from nearly all of the historically reliable valuation methods we track

Howard Marks : So then, which is the right set of equipment for today? I think we’re back to needing the cautious attributes, not the aggressive. 

Jeremy Grantham (GMO) : Lighten up on risk-taking now and don't wait for October 1 as previously recommended. But, as always, if you listen to my advice, be prepared to be early! 

Robert Shiller (ok, he's not a fund manager but an economist) : “I figure that the expected return for the stock market over the next 10 years is between 2% and 3% a year,” he said, “and that's including dividends.”

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